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lease sensitivity analysis

How should you present lease scenarios to a CFO?

How should you present lease scenarios to a CFO?

Show the base case, one worse case, and the assumption that flips the rank. Keep the rate in the open.

This page belongs to a validation / pilot concept. It is not generally available.

Questions this page also answers

How many cases?

A base and one worse case. Add a third only if it is real.

What must stay visible?

The rate, the extras, and the year the credit lands.

What is a bad packet?

A winner with no flip and no open items.

When is this transactional?

When the client is ready to request a pilot or a counter. Not before.

Plain-language definition

A CFO wants a decision packet, not a tour of every cell.

Scenarios are stories with coherent inputs.

Sensitivity is the one-knob test beside those stories.

This page sits under Lease sensitivity analysis.

The packet and the memo should match.

Open with why you tested.

Pilot pricing is a hypothesis page, not a checkout.

Request Pilot Access only after the packet is honest.

Investopedia defines net present value as later cash brought back to today. That idea is the spine of this page. See Investopedia on NPV.

Editorial commercial interior used as section context. Not a customer photo.

Why it matters

Finance will ask what breaks the pick.

A single trophy NPV looks like theater.

A short packet speeds the yes or the next ask.

How it works

Write the cash list first. Then decide what the page is measuring.

  • Open with the pick and the gap.
  • Show the year table once.
  • Show one worse case that still uses real inputs.
  • Name the flip input.
  • Close with what you still need from legal or the landlord.
Later cash boxes sit farther right and look smaller than year-one cash.
Later cash is smaller in today's dollars. This is a teaching picture, not a live model.

Formula in words. CFO packet = pick + gap + base table + one worse case + flip input + open items.

Required inputs for this page
InputMeaning
Base caseShared stacks
Worse caseCoherent, not cartoon
Flip inputRate, extra, or credit
Open itemsMissing clauses

Worked example

Here is a teaching sample. It is not customer data and not a result from a live client.

Lease A start rent$47,000
Lease B start rent$43,710
Discount rate8%
Sample NPV A$399,350
Lease A vs Lease B — CFO-packet sample
MetricLease ALease B
Start rent$47,000$43,710
Year-1 extras$8,100$8,667
Year-1 credit$18,000$9,900
Sample NPV$399,350$386,291
Cash-flow walk — CFO-packet sample
YearRentExtrasCreditCash outValue today
Year 1$47,000$8,100$18,000$37,100$34,352
Year 2$48,410$8,343$0$56,753$48,657
Year 3$49,862$8,593$0$58,455$46,403
Year 4$51,358$8,851$0$60,209$44,255
Year 5$52,899$9,117$0$62,016$42,207
Year 6$54,486$9,391$0$63,877$40,253
Year 7$56,121$9,673$0$65,794$38,390
Year 8$57,805$9,963$0$67,768$36,613
Year 9$59,539$10,262$0$69,801$34,918
Year 10$61,325$10,570$0$71,895$33,301
Sample NPV$399,350
Two bars on one scale for Lease A and Lease B. Teaching sample only.
Both options use the same rate. The lower bar is not automatically the better lease.

How to read the sample

Sample NPV for CFO-packet sample is about $399,350. A second path lands near $386,291. That gap is a talking point, not a promise.

Year notes for CFO-packet sample

  • Year 1 of CFO-packet sample has rent of $47,000.
  • Shared building cost is $8,100.
  • A credit of $18,000 lowers the cash you pay that year.
  • Cash out this year is about $37,100. Year one is the credit slide.
  • Later cash gets a shrink for time. At 8 percent, year 1 is worth about $34,352 today.
  • Next, year 2 rent is $48,410.
  • CAM, which is a shared building cost, is $8,343.
  • There is no credit in this year.
  • You pay about $56,753 this year after extras and credits. Year two is the first clean bill finance will feel.
  • Time shrinks later cash. At 8 percent, year 2 is worth about $48,657 today.
  • Then year 3 rent is $49,862.
  • Extras for the building come to $8,593.
  • Credits skip this year.
  • The net cash this year is about $58,455. The bump is the later-year risk.
  • Waiting has a price. At 8 percent, year 3 is worth about $46,403 today.
  • After that, year 4 rent is $51,358.
  • The shared building cost this time is $8,851.
  • No extra credit shows up this year.
  • Cash out this year is about $60,209. Later cash is the rate-test zone.
  • Later cash gets a shrink for time. At 8 percent, year 4 is worth about $44,255 today.
  • In year 5 of CFO-packet sample, rent is $52,899.
  • Shared building cost is $9,117.
  • There is no credit in this year.
  • You pay about $62,016 this year after extras and credits. The last year still belongs in the packet.
  • Time shrinks later cash. At 8 percent, year 5 is worth about $42,207 today.
  • Year 6 of CFO-packet sample has rent of $54,486.
  • CAM, which is a shared building cost, is $9,391.
  • Credits skip this year.
  • The net cash this year is about $63,877. Keep this later year in the sum for the sample.
  • Waiting has a price. At 8 percent, year 6 is worth about $40,253 today.
  • Next, year 7 rent is $56,121.
  • Extras for the building come to $9,673.
  • No extra credit shows up this year.
  • Cash out this year is about $65,794. The row still belongs in the sum for the long path.
  • Later cash gets a shrink for time. At 8 percent, year 7 is worth about $38,390 today.
  • Then year 8 rent is $57,805.
  • The shared building cost this time is $9,963.
  • There is no credit in this year.
  • You pay about $67,768 this year after extras and credits. Keep this later year in the sum for the long path.
  • Time shrinks later cash. At 8 percent, year 8 is worth about $36,613 today.
  • After that, year 9 rent is $59,539.
  • Shared building cost is $10,262.
  • Credits skip this year.
  • The net cash this year is about $69,801. The row still belongs in the sum for the long path.
  • Waiting has a price. At 8 percent, year 9 is worth about $34,918 today.
  • In year 10 of CFO-packet sample, rent is $61,325.
  • CAM, which is a shared building cost, is $10,570.
  • No extra credit shows up this year.
  • Cash out this year is about $71,895. Keep this later year in the sum for the long path.
  • Later cash gets a shrink for time. At 8 percent, year 10 is worth about $33,301 today.

Add those year values. The sample NPV for CFO-packet sample is about $399,350. This is a teaching sample, not a client result.

View Pilot Pricing

Assumptions

  • The sample packet is teaching-sized.

Edge cases

After-tax views belong only when the client asked for them.

Common mistakes

  • Twenty scenarios. No flip. A hidden rate.

Decision implications

If finance rejects discounting, show total cash beside NPV. Do not hide either.

Compare this to related metrics

See the memo for the prose twin of this packet.

See how to explain NPV for the talk track.

Limits

  • A packet cannot replace counsel.

When this should not drive the choice

  • Do not send a packet built on incomplete LOIs.

U.S. BLS describes how brokers advise clients on property deals. That is the job this page supports. See BLS broker occupation data.

NAIOP and BOMA are professional CRE homes for market and building-cost context. See NAIOP and BOMA.

Next step

This site is a validation / pilot concept. It is not generally available. Payment is not collected.

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Ready for a bounded next step? Request Pilot Access or see how it works and compare commercial leases.

Why use sensitivity analysis on a commercial lease? · How does discount-rate sensitivity change a lease ranking?

Trusted sources

These are public references. They are not endorsements and not client results.

  1. Investopedia — net present value
  2. Investopedia — discount rate
  3. U.S. BLS — real estate brokers
  4. NAIOP
  5. BOMA
  6. FASB